China's auto sales may start to go flat as early as 2015, with the trend remaining for 10 years, amid an infrastructure bottleneck and doubts on the ability of potential buyers in rural areas to afford a vehicle, UBS Securities predicted yesterday.

Although the domestic car market is expected to grow by double digits of 10-15 percent this year, sales may start to flatten around 2015 and 2016, said Yankun Hou, managing director and head of Asia autos at the brokerage. He added that the trend is seen to continue for 10 years.

In the past decade, China's auto industry has grown by a 20 percent compound annual rate. Hou believes domestic car sales can drive toward the 50 percent penetration rate of mature markets eventually.