SMALL Chinese shipbuilders will sink over the next five years as the industry continues to consolidate, according to the country's largest private shipbuilder China Rongsheng Heavy Industries Group Holdings.

"But top shipbuilders, say, the top 20, will fare better," said Chen Qiang, chairman of the shipbuilder. But he doubts whether many among 100 shipbuilders will survive.

Shipyards are struggling with overcapacity and declining demand amid a weak global economy, as well as inflation and rising labor costs. Orders for new ships tumbled 43.6 percent last year to 20.41 million deadweight tons in China, according to data from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology.